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Telefónica / Portugal Telecom

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Negotiating a divorce is even harder when the mother-in-law takes a seat at the table. The Portuguese government last month blocked Telefónica’s €7.2bn offer to buy Portugal Telecom out of Vivo, their joint mobile venture in Brazil. Now the Spaniards have ended attempts to revive the offer – they are (not unreasonably) tired of negotiating with shareholders and Portuguese politicians at the same time. Lisbon says it is acting in PT’s best interests; in fact it has damaged the company while doing Telefónica a favour.

Not that the deal is necessarily dead. Lisbon remains meddlesome by insisting that PT stay in Brazil: it could buy into a different Brazilian operator (probably Oi) and then take Telefónica’s money. But Oi’s ownership structure is complicated and if PT is to avoid a shareholder revolt it must secure more than a minority stake. Buying in Brazil would also be expensive: Telefónica’s offer, which valued Vivo at about 10 times expected earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, has had the effect of inflating everyone else’s expectations. Telecom Italia, for example, would be unlikely to accept less than €13bn for its Brazilian mobile operator, Tim Brasil. The worst-case scenario for PT, meanwhile, would see Telefónica take the case successfully to arbitration court in The Hague, dissolve the joint venture and seize control on the cheap.

Indeed, Telefónica might have had a lucky escape. It would have struggled to make a return on the inflated price it offered for Vivo, especially as regulators will soon cut the rates mobile operators in Brazil charge each other to connect calls. That will erode revenues. The market has it right: since Lisbon waded in to protect Portuguese interests, Telefónica’s shares have risen 8 per cent, while PT’s have dropped 3.5 per cent. With friends like these …

Fonte: Financial Times

Written by PH

2010/07/19 at 18:00

Posted in Bolsa e empresas

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Ainda sobre a golden share

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Não consigo perceber o apoio político quase generalizado, do PCP ao CDS, com excepção do PSD, à utilização da golden share para vetar um negócio na PT.

  1. Referem que a Vivo tem importância estratégica mas não reconhecem a importância (estratégica) de 7.150 milhões de euros. Até parece que a PT se preparava para oferecer a Vivo à Telefónica, gratuitamente, num acto de loucura.
  2. A balança de pagamentos está persistentemente negativa e portanto precisamos de atrair capital estrangeiro para financiar a nossa economia. Os 7.150 milhões de euros permitiriam à PT pagar as suas dívidas e simultaneamente injectar um volume significativo de dinheiro no nosso sistema financeiro em dificuldades. De passagem a PT ficaria com um balanço muito robusto e, portanto, bem preparada para atravessar  as restrições ao financiamento que se adivinham. Se isto não é estratégico, nesta altura, não sei o que é.
  3. A Vivo actua no Brasil (i.e. emprega sobretudo brasileiros). Os 7.150 milhões de euros, depois de passados à banca portuguesa, quer por dividendo extraordinário quer por amortização de dívida da PT, seriam utilizados para financiar empresas portuguesas (i.e. que empregam sobretudo trabalhadores portugueses).
  4. Accionistas que representam 74% do capital da PT, depois de fazerem contas, entenderam que os 7.150 milhões de euros valem mais que as acções da Vivo que a PT detém e, portanto, decidiram vender. O Estado e todos os partidos políticos acham que é mau negócio para o país. Então qual é o valor que acham justo? É que deve haver um número!… ou também não vendiam mesmo se a Telefónica pagasse 71.500 milhões de euros?

Com a balança de pagamentos persistentemente negativa temos três hipóteses:

  1. Passamos a exportar muito mais e a importar muito menos. Não vai acontecer no curto prazo.
  2. Continuamos a aumentar o endividamento. Os financiadores internacionais não nos vão emprestar muito mais dinheiro a taxas que possamos pagar.
  3. Vendemos activos. Por exclusão de partes, a médio prazo, parece inevitável.

A ser assim, se não querem vender a Vivo, qual é o outro activo, com compradores interessados, que vão vender???

Written by PH

2010/07/01 at 23:55

Portugal Telecom / Telefónica

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Telefónica’s (twice sweetened) offer was bigger than Portugal Telecom’s entire pre-bid market capitalisation. It valued Vivo at about 35 times this year’s expected earnings. While Vivo is undeniably PT’s best asset, offering decent growth in one of the world’s most promising emerging markets, Telefónica was offering more money than PT could ever expect to reap from staying put. If the government’s veto stands, in contrast, PT could end up stuck in a relationship with the Spaniards that has gone from fractious to downright abusive. Vivo would surely suffer under such management.

Financial Times

Written by PH

2010/06/30 at 22:07

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Debt crisis nations rely on loans from ECB

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Banks in Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain account for more than two-thirds of the increase in lending to eurozone financial institutions by the European Central Bank since the summer of 2008 as many struggle to access financial markets.

The heavy reliance of these banks on the ECB for funding is a sign of the growing stresses in the eurozone as investors and other banks refuse to lend to them because of fears that the debt crisis in the 16-nation bloc will deepen.

Banks in the four countries have borrowed €225bn ($277bn) of the €332bn increase in lending since June 2008, according to the Royal Bank of Scotland, which compiled the information from eurozone central banks. This is 68 per cent of the rise in lending, yet these countries only represent 18 per cent of the eurozone’s gross domestic product.

The ECB has never given a geographical breakdown of where the liquidity it provides has flowed. News that its help has been concentrated in just a few countries could prove awkward politically for the Frankfurt-based institution if it leads to accusations that ECB policies are unfairly supporting southern European financial institutions.

Nick Matthews, an economics analyst at RBS, said: “This is a sign of the stress in the system. Banks do not want to lend to each other in this climate, which means many have to turn to the ECB.”

Don Smith, economist at Icap, added: “Without the ECB, the banks would be in real trouble. There are very real liquidity problems. This is all about the eurozone debt crisis and the little confidence investors have in the most indebted countries.”

The ECB stepped up its liquidity programmes to breathe life back into the banking system, following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.

It had lent a total of €815bn to eurozone banks at the end of this May compared with €483bn in June 2008, says RBS. Outstanding loans to eurozone banks currently stand at €844bn.

Many banks are refusing to lend to institutions in the four countries, preferring instead to park their cash at the ECB, in spite of the very low deposit rate of just a quarter of a point. Banks deposited €213bn at the ECB on Tuesday, which is much higher than before the financial crisis.

Greece is the most reliant on the ECB. It has taken €78.1bn of the increase in lending, followed by Ireland at €54.3bn, Portugal at €34.bn and Spain at €58.4bn. Germany has taken an extra €17.8bn.

Separately, the Bank of Portugal revealed that its banks had borrowed €35.8bn from the ECB in May compared with €17.7bn in April.

Portugal also had to pay average yields of 4.657 per cent to sell €943m of five-year bonds on Wednesday, almost 1 percentage point more than the 3.701 per cent paid at auction at end May.

Fonte: Financial Times

Written by PH

2010/06/24 at 05:26

Posted in Bolsa e empresas

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PT / Telefónica in Brazil

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Portugal Telecom’s chief executive says value cannot be measured in purely financial terms. Shareholders should ignore him. Of course it is a wrench to contemplate flogging the company’s crown jewels (its share of Brazilian mobile operator Vivo) and PT would certainly be a boring company both to run and to own without it. But everything has its price. Shareholders simply need to decide if Telefónica’s sweetened €6.5bn offer is higher than the net present value of its half of Vivo. Everything else is a distraction.

Settling on a value for Vivo is by no means straightforward. Discounted cash flows are sensitive to small changes in assumptions, which, in any case, are no more than educated guesses. Nevertheless, they provide a rough framework. Assuming an 11.5 per cent cost of capital and a long-term growth rate of 2 per cent, PT’s share of Vivo is worth about €4bn. Lowering the cost of capital to an optimistic 10 per cent and assuming a 2.5 per cent long-term growth rate still only values PT’s share at €5.2bn.

Yet PT chief executive Zeinal Bava is much cannier than his comments suggest. He rattled Telefónica into raising its €5.7bn offer and he might yet do so again. But even his “shareholder value” argument for holding out is shaky. PT says the offer is too low because the Spaniards could reap almost €4bn worth of synergies by combining Vivo with their fixed-line business Telesp. Perhaps. But a clean merger could only realistically be pulled off once PT was out of the way. The buy-out, then, crystallises more value than PT shareholders could reasonably expect to receive by staying put. The Portuguese have played their hand brilliantly; it’s time to cash in.

Fonte: Financial Times

Written by PH

2010/06/13 at 20:55

Posted in Bolsa e empresas